Carolina Weather Group

Dr. Phil Klotzbach is back on the Carolina Weather Group to explain why he and the famed Colorado State University hurricane forecast predict a slightly below-average storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean this hurricane season. They are forecasting 13 named storms, down from the average of 14.4 They expect 6 hurricanes, down from the average of 7.2. Dr. Klotzbach expects 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater, which is down from 3.2. Current neutral ENSO conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are much warmer than normal, so if a robust El Niño does not develop, the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. Larger-than-normal uncertainty exists with this outlook. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the