Conversations With Bill Kristol

What happened in the midterms? What can explain why the 2022 midterm elections defied expectations and countered the trends of recent history? Will Trump be challenged successfully for the Republican nomination? Will Biden run again? To discuss these and other questions, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, Senior Editor of The Atlantic. In a Conversation after the 2020 elections, Brownstein noted how evenly divided and deeply entrenched the American political landscape had become. Summing up the 2022 midterms, Brownstein argues there has been surprisingly little change in the electorate since 2020, and moreover the country continues to trend toward fewer swing states. Yet strong opposition to Trump and the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade allowed the Democratic coalition to perform better than expected in midterms. What comes next? Brownstein and Kristol discuss what the data from Tuesday suggest, and what this means for our politics as we look towards 2024.

Eight months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? According to Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Ukraine’s stunning battlefield achievements have dramatically altered the dynamic of the war. As he puts it, Russians no longer have the ability to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine. That’s over. Russians have fundamentally gone over to the defensive. But serious challenges remain. Ukraine can reconquer or secure several strategically significant territories, without which Ukraine will remain highly vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The questions emerging from the war are momentous: What will come of Putin’s nuclear threats? Is there an “off ramp” from the conflict? Are we in a new Cold War? Kagan’s thoughtful examination of the present situation and reflection on its consequences help us see how a Ukrainian victory is necessary for the free world.

Iran today is in some kind of revolutionary stage…. All social classes are united behind the idea that they want the extinction of the regime, and all social classes seem to be united on the proposition that reform is not possible. So argues Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. In this Conversation, Takeyh analyzes the momentous events in Iran following the killing of the 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police last month. As Takeyh argues, the regime faces the greatest threat to its rule since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Takeyh shares his perspective on the complex political, social, and security dynamics in Iran and what to look for over the next weeks and months. Kristol and Takeyh also discuss what the US and the West should do to give the protest movement the best chances to succeed.

After the historic Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, what should we look for as the Supreme Court begins a new term? How will the Court handle controversial subjects such as affirmative action and religious freedom? How should we understand the current Court’s jurisprudence? To discuss these questions, we are joined by University of Chicago law professor William Baude. According to Baude, with its emphasis on originalist jurisprudence, the Court has become more willing to take bold actions—and likely will continue to do so this year. Yet Baude argues that the centrality of the Court today in settling the most controversial matters in our politics is as much a consequence of the failures of Congress as the judicial philosophy or temperament of Supreme Court justices. Kristol and Baude also discuss similarities and dissimilarities with eras like the New Deal when the Court acted as a counter-majoritarian force against a popular and unified Congress. Kristol and Baude also consider the threat of election s

How has the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade affected the course of the 2022 midterm elections? How has it affected the standing of the two political parties? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Brookings Institution Senior Fellow William Galston. According to Galston, the galvanizing effect of the Dobbs decision on Democratic voters has eaten into the advantage the out-of-power party typically has in an off-year election. Swing voters who view Republicans as too far from the mainstream on abortion, and other issues, threaten to upend GOP hopes of a Red Wave in November. At the same time, Galston reflects on the Democrats own vulnerabilities, particularly on cultural issues, which could hurt their electoral chances in November and beyond.

Where do things stand in Ukraine six months into the war? How have the United States, Britain, and NATO contributed to the war effort to this point? What more could we do in the months ahead? What broader lessons should we draw? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Tom Tugendhat, Conservative MP for Tonbridge and Malling and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the British parliament. According to Tugendhat: the end result is clear. The courage and commitment of the Ukrainian people means that Ukraine will not and cannot be a Russian satellite or a Russian colony again. Nonetheless, as he argues, America, Britain, and the rest of the NATO allies must continue to support Ukraine on the military and diplomatic fronts to ensure a successful outcome. Tugendhat and Kristol also consider lessons we might learn from the new geopolitical situation we face following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. On this front, Tugendhat presents a compelling case for strengthening the

Why do great cities rise and fall? Why have cities been pivotal to the dynamism and growth of America's economy? What are the threats cities face today—and what can we learn from history about how best to help our cities thrive? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Ed Glaeser, chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and one of the world’s leading experts on the economics and politics of cities. Glaeser explains that cities benefit from and encourage the human desire for proximity to one another, which can lead to new ideas, the transmission of discoveries, and entrepreneurship. But cities also are vulnerable to stagnation and decline, particularly when entrenched interests engage in "rent-seeking”— policies that keep newcomers down or out. Glaeser notes that we should avoid the temptation to develop a rigid set of policy prescriptions for every city, or to believe we know precisely how to plan cities or neighborhoods. Rather, he arg

What have we learned about Donald Trump’s influence on Republican elected officials, candidates, and voters through the primary season? What are the central tensions in the party as we head toward the midterms and 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, Donald Trump remains the center of gravity in the Republican Party and is broadly popular among party regulars. And yet there is a majority of Republican voters Ayres calls “Maybe Trump” who might be willing to consider an alternative in 2024. Ayres points to how some Republican elected officials have successfully managed to avoid Trump’s insistence on denying the outcome of the 2020 election—and considers possible paths forward for the party that would allow some distance from Trump. Kristol and Ayres also discuss Republican prospects in the House and Senate in 2022 in light of issues including abortion, Joe Biden’s approval, and the quality of candidates in both parties.

Is Donald Trump still the center of gravity in the Republican Party? Will Joe Biden run for reelection? What might our politics look like in 2023 as the races for the 2024 presidential primaries kick into gear? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. In Stoddard’s view, the most likely outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy soon—and Biden not seeking reelection. She forecasts a scenario in which Trump maintains his hold on the Republican Party by exerting pressure on loyalists in the House of Representatives, while trying to fend off challenges from potential rivals like Ron DeSantis. As for the Democrats, Stoddard argues that the party has not yet come to grips with the challenge of attracting swing voters nor fully grappled with the likelihood of Biden not running. Bottom line: more volatility ahead.

In the spring of 2019, when most analysts thought Joe Biden had little chance of winning the party’s nomination, Democratic strategist Joe Trippi predicted that Biden would be the nominee. Now, as analysts predict a Republican wave election in the midterms, Trippi again challenges the conventional wisdom by arguing that the Democrats will do better than expected in 2022. As he puts it in this provocative Conversation, the data at this juncture do not point to a red wave tsunami but rather what could turn out to be like a red mirage. Trippi highlights the fact that poll numbers in Congressional races have been decoupling from the president’s approval ratings—both in the generic ballot, and in high-profile Senate races like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia. Along with other factors like partisan engagement, Trippi argues that the 2022 midterms may turn out to be less a referendum on the president’s performance and more of a choice election between particular Republican and Democratic candidates in each race. And

What is the state of the war in Ukraine? What is the Ukrainian theory of victory? What are Vladimir Putin’s current aims? What are the strategic and political challenges facing the US and NATO allies? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and undersecretary of Defense. Edelman argues there is much uncertainty now that Russia appears to have changed its war strategies—but the Ukrainian resistance remains robust. While praising efforts by the US and European allies to help Ukraine, Edelman notes that war fatigue, declining munition stocks, and some lack of political resolve pose difficulties that must be addressed. In sum, Edelman presents a bracing case for ramping up support to Ukraine. Kristol and Edelman also discuss the importance of strengthening NATO while continuing to address other pressing geopolitical challenges for example in the Middle East.

We see inflation in our daily lives from prices at the pump, groceries, and services—and as a major focus in our politics. How have the war in Ukraine, the response to Covid in China, and other domestic and international developments shaped our economic outlook? What policies could we pursue to fight inflation and boost the economy? Joining us to consider these questions is American Enterprise Institute economist Stan Veuger. Veuger argues that, given the turbulence of the last few years, the economic situation of the United States remains stronger than we might have anticipated. But to address the threat posed by inflation and other problems in the economy, Veuger calls for a number of public policies—increasing the supply of goods through reform of regulatory and trade policies, increasing the labor force through immigration, and tapping our domestic energy supply—all of which could help us navigate these uncertain times.

Nearly a year and a half into his presidency, how is Joe Biden doing? What are the key tensions within the Democratic Party? How strong is Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns, New York Times reporters and authors of This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America’s Future, a thoughtful and provocative account of the 2020 Elections and the Biden presidency so far. As Martin and Burns argue, Donald Trump has remained the leader of his party to a greater degree than Republicans thought possible after January 6th. Meanwhile, Biden has struggled to navigate the polarized politics of the era—including the internal tensions within the Democratic Party. Kristol, Martin, and Burns consider possible paths forward for the parties, including presidential hopefuls in 2024 if Biden and Trump are not the nominees.

In a recent article, Judge J. Michael Luttig warns that the last presidential election was a dry run for the next. As he explains, since 2020, our political leaders have yet to do what is necessary to protect against future efforts to overturn elections. In this Conversation, Luttig, a former United States Circuit judge, discusses the role that he played in January 2021, when he advised Vice President Pence on the Constitutional arguments for resisting President Trump’s pressure to overturn the election results. As Luttig wrote and posted on Twitter on January 5, and Vice President Pence cited in his letter on January 6, The only responsibility and power of the Vice President under the Constitution is to faithfully count the electoral college votes as they have been cast... and The Constitution does not empower the Vice President to alter in any way the votes have been cast, either by rejecting certain votes or otherwise. But Luttig stresses that serious dangers and threats remain. Given potential loopholes

Two months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What explains the Russian military's failures on the battlefield—and the brave and intelligent resistance of the Ukrainians? How should we grade the response of the US and NATO allies? What geopolitical lessons can we draw from the war? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. To explain the complex dynamics of the war, Kagan highlights both the structural failures of the Russian military and the poor decisions of its leadership. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military has responded courageously and dynamically, which reflects the benefits of a years-long effort to de-Sovietize its army. But many dangers remain, and Kagan calls for the US and its allies to ramp up support for Ukraine. Finally, Kristol and Kagan reflect on the broader geopolitical implications of the war and how the US should prepare for other military threats.

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has put the dangers of European reliance on Russian oil and gas into sharp focus. The debate on energy policy in the West is, however, too often built on wishful thinking—particularly regarding our ability to make a transition to a carbon-neutral economy in the next few decades. According to Mark Mills, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, it simply is inconceivable that the world could move away from hydrocarbons on the time frame casually advanced by politicians in the West. Mills explains—from the vantages of science and economics—that attempting to do so would pad the coffers of the world’s most dangerous regimes, like Putin’s, without meaningfully reducing carbon emissions. Instead, Mills calls for a two-pronged strategy: In the short term, America and its allies should dramatically ramp up production of oil and gas to increase geopolitical strength. While doing so, w

Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. We need to be prepared to respond to Putin's threats—and to do so effectively we have to understand the role of nuclear weapons in Russian strategy, in American foreign policy, and in the current global order. To consider these questions, we are joined by Harvard professor of government Stephen Rosen. Drawing on his profound knowledge of the Cold War, Rosen explains the role nuclear weapons have played since the Soviet era. Then as now, Russia’s threat to deploy nuclear weapons aims to deter its adversaries from intervening to defend an ally. Though we must be judicious in our actions, Rosen explains why the West cannot afford to give in to nuclear blackmail. Beyond the potentially disastrous consequences for Ukraine, he contends that surrendering to Putin’s threats would embolden other nuclear states to pursue wars of conquest. Rosen also outlines approaches we should consider to counter Putin’s other potential escalations.

Nearly a month into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What have we learned from the Ukrainian resistance, the response of America and NATO allies, Putin’s ambitions, and China’s decisions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Aaron Friedberg, Princeton professor and author of the new book, Getting China Wrong. Beginning with an assessment of the military and political situation of Russia and Ukraine, Friedberg goes on to explain how the war might lead to fundamental changes in the global political order. Friedberg argues that there likely will be no going back to the post-Cold War international system—in which the West considered Russia and China as potentially responsible stakeholders. According to Friedberg, the war in Ukraine will compel America and its allies to dramatically reinforce strategic and economic resilience in the face of threats posed by Beijing and Moscow. Friedberg calls for America to lead a concerted effort to build an alliance of liberal democracies that can deter the aut

Paul Cantor (1945 - 2022) was one of the preeminent Shakespeare scholars of our time as well as a great popular culture appreciator, critic, and teacher. We were fortunate to host Paul Cantor ten times on Conversations with Bill Kristol, covering the whole range of his interests. We are pleased to re-release his very first Conversation, in which Cantor explains why Shakespeare is a political thinker. Though we mourn his loss, we take some comfort in the fact that his work will continue to reach students of all ages, now and in the future.

In this Conversation, released originally in 2018, former world chess champion and human rights activist Garry Kasparov shares his perspective on threats to Western democracies from dictators abroad and illiberal movements at home. Analyzing the geopolitical situation, Kasparov argues that the challenge to the West posed by dictators like Putin remains immense. Turning to Western societies themselves, Kasparov diagnoses a dangerous complacency about the effort required to sustain political liberty. Finally, Kristol and Kasparov discuss how America can recapture the will necessary to defend itself and its principles. Kasparov was extremely prescient at the time, and the insights he offers here are worth revisiting now in light of Putin's war on Ukraine.