Nonprophets

Episode 82 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what makes President Trump a demagogue (07:48); whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues (11:52); how the national political climate affected events in Charlottesville (19:45); the importance of respecting people we disagree with in politics (22:58); whether constitutionalism can prevail against demagoguery (36:59); and why Mike endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president (43:35). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/21/2020)

Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which they suspect the selection will be chosen (23:58), what is an "ecosexual" as opposed to an "echosexual" (27:26), and their ultimate predictions (45:37). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/23/2019)

Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we and the media understand about Trump's conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine, and where the details don't add up. The podcast begins with Scott's recounting of the conversation, the technicalities as well as implications of moving a MemCon from the TNet system to the NICE system (6:49), Ukraine's predicament, Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor (13:45), impeachment (21:00), Baghdadi, Trump, and the Nationals, all in a day (30:30), and finally we end on a light note, anticipating our annual Pantone color podcast. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/28/2019)

Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting in a post-Trump world, (38:30), The indefinite Presidency (44:48), Predicting the next week (57:10). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/19/2019)

Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public opinion (33:05); whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate (40:22); and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate (51:17). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/28/2019)

Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower scandal/contretemps/nothing burger (25:39). They close with a discussion of the Democratic candidates, including Atief's recent purchase of a steeply discounted seat on the Marianne Williamson bandwagon. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/21/2019).

Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low (18:29); to what extent we're responsible for the ethics and policies of the candidate we support (28:50); the weakening of the principle of stare decisis in American politics (37:49); and American values and the politics of resentment (41:00). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/2/2019)

Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning environments (03:10); why "omnivorous generalists" are better at forecasting (18:40); how his research influenced the way he will raise his own child (29:00); what we get wrong about Mozart and Tiger Woods (33:40); the advantages of having students explore topics broadly rather than teaching them narrow skills (38:45); the value of "skill-stacking (50:00); and his experience interviewing Sir Roger Bannister (56:40). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/23/2019)

Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much simpler, from a moral perspective, to just paint houses (17:31). They close with a discussion of recent forecasts by Nancy Pelosi (19:04) and Jared Diamond (32:19), a discussion that includes the definition of "Schrödinger's Asshole" (21:10). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/12/2019).

Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catastrophic risk and the Future of Life Institute (40:06); and exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay (49:07). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/15/2019)

Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will become of the Iran nuclear deal (08:56); how common conspiracies are in real life (14:05); his forthcoming work set during the siege of Aleppo (20:48); how he researches his books (25:10); the Middle East's prospects (27:16); what other authors have influenced his style (35:58); and what his fans are like (45:54). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/1/2019)

Episode 71 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies (00:28), what's going on in Venezuela (28:05), whether the UK may require aid in the event of a hard Brexit (32:13), as well as the concepts of a "cheese submarine" (35:09) and a "glass cliff" (35:59). They close with a discussion of the 2020 Democratic presidential field, including the relative likelihoods of electing a president who is an atheist, woman, or homosexual or transgender individual (41:08). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/22/2019).

Episode 70 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott forecast listener questions. We discuss who will win Chicago's mayoral election (01:18); whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car (11:56); and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU's GDPR data privacy law (19:09). We close out the episode by talking about Isaac Asimov's prediction for 2019 (38:03) and David Brooks' prediction for 2019 (42:24), and announcing the winner of our 2018 North Korea summit challenge coin (55:07). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/5/2019)

Episode 69 of the NonProphets podcast, Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Marc Koehler. Marc is the Vice President of Good Judgment Inc., in charge of government relations and co-head of analytics as well as an accomplished superforecaster. He was simultaneously the top forecaster on the internal Intelligence Community Prediction Market, the Good Judgment Project superforecaster prediction market, and on Hypermind. Marc was formerly in the Foreign Service with postings to the Office of the Vice President, the White House Situation Room, the National Security Council, the Pentagon, and the State Department, and overseas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Hong Kong and Sweden. Marc talks with us about working with Vice President Dick Cheney and Scooter Libby (1:18); the Pentagon Joint Staff and the Office of Net Assessments (4:55); ACE tournament Good Judgment Project and ICPM forecasting—open-source vs. classified information (6:55); how superforecasters think (11:35); how to set up the best predictive intell

Episode 68 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott look back at their 2018 forecasts and forward to 2019 (2:23); the significance of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis' resignation for the US' relationship with its allies (8:57); iterated tit-for-tat games (18:00); the normalization of authoritarian politics (22:47); the US government shutdown and the Wall (26:45); our predictions for 2019 and whether Trump will be impeached (38:34); Hungary’s “slave law” (47:32), and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019 (56:40). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/23/2018)

Episode 67 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott perform their annual ritual of predicting the next Pantone color of the year (00:21), and then discuss their predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year (20:07), both of which are now public. Overtaken by events! But, still fun. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/10/2018)  

Episode 66 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri (01:27); the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again (13:27); voter suppression in the election (25:30); what's going to happen in US politics over the next two years (30:45); whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020 (35:55); who the Democrats will nominate for President (37:41); whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries (41:56); and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation (45:30). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/16/2018)

Episode 65 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Predictit (0:15); US midterm elections (7:39); why most conspiracy theories are false (23:04); how no one likes to be laughed at (27:46); the Missouri Senate race (33:02); the possibility of post-election violence (35:47); Trump's claim that he can effectively amend the 14thAmendment (42:38); and Draymond Green and the #fergieremixchallenge (48:58). As always you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/01/2018)

Episode 64 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss whether we should care about nukes (1:15), the difficulty of tackling big problems (4:02), The Invention of Peace, pseudo-events, cruelty, and what we care about (10:16), and national identity and immigration (16:05). They then discuss the midterms, including which issues matter (26:57), the Missouri senate race (29:19), midterm enthusiasm (44:14), the impressiveness of young people (47:08), and calibrating forecasts (49:36). They close with a discussion of the Senate race in Texas (57:38). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/22/2018)

Episode 63 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31 (00:20); the nature of the allegations against Kavanaugh (09:38); how hearings might affect the midterm elections in the US; the altercation at an Emmy party between Mark Burnett and Tom Arnold about the rumored Trump Apprentice tapes (38:18); and a few Things Scott Cares About (44:03) As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/18/2018)