Nonprophets

Episode 62 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert, with Scott away, talk about a PredictIt deal for users, as well as a frankly fantastic contest the podcast is having for our listeners (00:10). We then discuss the upcoming midterms, including data sources that we find probative (9:12), and the median voter theory, Missouri and Hawaii politics, and races that we find interesting (17:22). We close with a discussion of voter turnout (51:59). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com.

Episode 61 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they were up to all summer while they weren't podcasting. They discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended (00:58); the politicization of the administrative state (07:01); the use of pretexts in political debates (09:43); how Robert lost money by bailing out of a bet about Hawaii politics too early (17:18); how low expectations are eroding norms (19:59); how cute Atief's baby is (22:08); Robert's news fatigue (24:13); corruption and political protests in Romania (26:46); and what news stories we're each following (33:19). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/17/2018)

Episode 60 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on what they've been up to, including Atief following the Supreme Court's upcoming Lucia vs. SEC decision (00:55), Robert attending the Hawaii state Democratic convention (16:34), a discussion of being a new parent in the context of national politics (29:47), including which celebrities we would swap in for Trump (34:15), and child-rearing tips, including using babies as props for Halloween and whether honesty is the best policy when it comes to Santa Claus (35:50).  We close with a discussion of the North Korean summit, including the potential value of the commemorative coins (43:17) and which country, among Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia, wants to modernize the most (49:23). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/31/2018).

Episode 59 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Will Jennings, head of public engagement at the political prediction market PredictIt. Will previously worked in the Obama White House and for the vice presidential campaign of Senator Tim Kaine. We talk with Will about what PredictIt is and how it works (00:45); how prediction markets can be sources of news and information (11:07); which markets have been controversial (18:37); who makes money on PredictIt and how they do it (35:11); how PredictIt comes up with specific markets (42:19); and what lessons Will has learned from working on prediction markets (47:27). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/25/2018)

Episode 58 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Byron Reese about his new book, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity. We talk what motivated the book (00:33); what "the Fourth Age" is (02:00); the role of ideas and culture in history (07:35); whether automation will cause technological unemployment (09:00); whether automation will increase inequality (23:00); what skills we'll need in the future (29:34); whether technological changes will be socially and political disruptive (32:05); why computing and automation hasn't had a larger effect on economic measures of productivity (35:12); what access to the internet is worth (37:10); where fears about AI come from (39:52); what consciousness and free will are (43:11); why Byron is optimistic about the future (53:08). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/2/2018)

Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the possibility of an announcement about Korean reunification (4:07), Hungary (Hungaria?) making arrests in a George Soros conspiracy (7:53), Macron discussing Trump's soft hands (13:33), with a diversion into Comey's book (14:26) and the attractiveness of Helen of Troy (16:56), the special counsel indicting Trump (18:23), Trump deciding to just come clean (23:58), and whether Jeff Sessions might destroy the only copy of the Wu-Tang Clan's "Once Upon A Time in Shaolin" (27:08). Things then get full-on Trump-oriented, with a discussion of the plausibility of us learning more about Trump's penis's appearance (31:47) or nickname (33:04), whether he has an illegitimate child (34:59), Giuliani being appointed to investigate Hillary C

Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings (00:50); how skeptical we should be of research that seem to confirm our preconceptions (04:14); whether evidence can change people's minds (15:27); "The Debunking Handbook" techniques for correcting false ideas (18:48); research into how much contrary information it takes to change people's minds (23:21); whether culture or economics determines election results (29:11); how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making (31:25); and how we can stay out of Chumptown (39:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/4/2018)

  Episode 55 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their Predictit account, including the class of questions on which they have been losing money (1:04), as well as how they approach gaining probative information out of Trump administration pronouncements (12:00). They then discuss Russia, including propaganda and assassinations (22:08), whether Scott is a Time Lord (23:57), trust, authenticity, and the Russian concept of "vranyo" (30:14), which national figures have substantial collective trust (36:04), and approaches to political debates and political persuasion (41:03). They close with a discussion of the consequences of the recent self-driving car fatality, as well as the genders, if any, of KITT and KARR (50:04). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/23/2018)  

Episode 54 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics (01:45); the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy (14:32); whether democratic norms are weakening (24:51); Transparency International's 2017 Corruption Index (40:33); whether there will be any material change in US gun laws in the next six months (48:50); and which institutions in the US are seen as corrupt (53:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/5/2018)

Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty years out (00:19); the difficulty of forecasting changing norms and tastes (05:12); what the book got right and what it got wrong (10:01); how much our lives have changed since 1968 (14:58); how technology is making it harder to know what is real and what is fake (20:45); how technology could make the problems of inequality worse (26:05); how technology is changing our ideas of privacy (28:19); what science fiction scenario is closest to what life will be like in 50 years (35:04); whether there will be more than 100,000 people in space in 50 years (37:34); the problem of technological unemployment (38:27); what country we would want to be born into in 50 years (45:18); and what people 50 years from now will judge us for doing (51:46). As always, you can reach us at